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I thought HD-DVD would beat Blu-ray.  You know why? 

I thought the exclusively-HD-DVD content providers (Universal, Paramount) would, under the same influences that got them to support HD-DVD, take the simple step of ending sales of ordinary DVDs in favor of the dual DVD/HD-DVD Twin disc.  That would have created a massive sales base of HD-DVDs, since everybody buying a Universal, Paramount, or Time Warner disc for their standard definition player would be buying an HD-DVD.  And those millions of HD-DVDs already in homes with only standard definition players would make it easier to sell those homes HD-DVD players, instead of Blu-ray players.

Instead, the studios continued to sell pure standard-definition disks.  So you had the chicken-and-egg problem wehre consumers wouldn't buy HD-DVD disks without players, and they wouldn't buy players without disks, and a format war that threatened them with obsolescence should they go to the expense of spending lots on both.

Sony, of course, had taken the step of putting a Blu-ray player in every PS3.  Now, when the PS3 didn't take over the gaming market, that was a problem; but even mediocre sales created a market for Blu-ray movies.  That left Blu-ray with an edge over HD-DVD . . . and the edge was enough, over enough time, to win the format war.
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