Thoughts on the price of oil

[stevenehrbar]

Coal-to-liquids is currently economically competitive with petroleum refining; the major problem is that it requires long-term investment that bets on oil not dropping to 1990s prices.  But if the price of oil looks to be permanently high, it will be economically attractive. 

China is unlikely to be stopped from going to coal-to-liquids by environmental concerns.  It also can figure out the strategic advantages of being self-sufficient in motor fuels, and in being the supplier of such to neighboring industrialized economies (S. Korea, Taiwan, Japan).